Everyone, especially the naysayers regarding a stable population like Bob Schmidt, should be watching the NBC Nightly News which is beginning a series on water. The one tonight was about the grossly polluted Ganges River in India in which people bath and from which they even drink in spite of the fact that it is highly toxic. Part of the reason for this behavior is religious but the pollution is a direct function of the population, too many people in too small a space.
Tomorrow night the water segment will deal with the Southwestern U.S.. It is important for everyone especially the Pros and their ilk to watch this segment. It might give them some clue about why there is opposition to high fertility rate immigrants and illegal aliens.
44 comments:
Sounds like something worth watching, Ultima. Thanks for the heads up.
Ulty, This guys says you are all wet and we have Abundant Water. He sounds like a pretty smart guy. Is he right?
I like that song too...
Hear the rime of the ancient mariner
See his eye as he stops one of three
Mesmerises one of the wedding guests
Stay here and listen to the nightmares of the sea.
And the music plays on, as the bride passes by
Caught by his spell and the mariner tells his tale.
Driven south to the land of the snow and ice
To a place where nobodys been
Through the snow fog flies on the albatross
Hailed in gods name, hoping good luck it brings.
And the ship sails on, back to the north
Through the fog and ice and the albatross follows on.
The mariner kills the bird of good omen
His shipmates cry against what hes done
But when the fog clears, they justify him
And make themselves a part of the crime.
Sailing on and on and north across the sea
Sailing on and on and north til all is calm.
The albatross begins with its vengeance
A terrible curse a thirst has begun
His shipmates blame bad luck on the mariner
About his neck, the dead bird is hung.
And the curse goes on and on at sea
And the curse goes on and on for them and me.
day after day, day after day,
We stuck nor breath nor motion
As idle as a painted ship upon a painted ocean
Water, water everywhere and
All the boards did shrink
Water, water everywhere nor any drop to drink.
There calls the mariner
There comes a ship over the line
But how can she sail with no wind in her sails and no tide.
See...onward she comes
Onward she nears out of the sun
See, she has no crew
She has no life, wait but heres two.
Death and she life in death,
They throw their dice for the crew
She wins the mariner and he belongs to her now.
Then...crew one by one
They drop down dead, two hundred men
She...she, life in death.
She lets him live, her chosen one.
one after one by the star dogged moon,
Too quick for groan or sigh
Each turned his facce with a ghastly pang
And cursed me with his eye
Four times fifty living men
(and I heard nor sigh nor groan)
With heavy thump, a lifeless lump,
They dropped down one by one.
The curse it lives on in their eyes
The mariner wished hed die
Along with the sea creatures
But they lived on, so did he.
And by the light of the moon
He prays for their beauty not doom
With heart he blesses them
Gods creatures all of them too.
Then the spell starts to break
The albatross falls from his neck
Sinks down like lead into the sea
Then down in falls comes the rain.
Hear the groans of the long dead seamen
See them stir and they start to rise
Bodies lifted by good spirits
None of them speak and theyre lifelesss in their eyes
And revenge is still sought, penance starts again
Cast into a trance and the nightmare carries on.
Now the curse is finally lifted
And the mariner sights his home
Spirits go fromhe long dead bodies
Form their own light and the mariners left alone.
And then a boat came sailing towards him
It was a joy he could not believe
The pilots boat, his son and the hermit,
Penance of life will fall onto him.
And the ship sinks like lead into the sea
And the hermit shrieves the mariner of his sins.
The mariners bound to tell of his story
To tell this tale wherever he goes
To teach gods word by his own example
That we must love all things thaat God made.
And the wedding guests a sad and wiser man
And the tale goes on and on and on.
IMO, the best Iron Maiden album ever.
Re: Abundant Water
Abundant water is an intriguing idea. I believe it would be a huge enterprise to collect and bring enough water to Southern California to make a difference. If one assumes that Southern California has now exhausted its legal water entitlements from the Colorado and the Feather Rivers, then all population growth would have to be served by a concept like Abundant Water.
Assume population growth of 10 million in Southern California and current per capita usage of 0.75 Acre feet for all uses or 244,500 gallons average per person per year. Then for 10 million more people, a transport of 2.445 x 10^12 gallons would be needed every year. In terms of Acre Feet that is 7,500,000 Acre Feet per year. Assuming a rainy season of 6 months per year, 1,250,000 Acre-Feet/month or 41,667 Acre-Feet/day would have to be collected and transported. If we assume a balloon the size of a football field, 100 yards long and 30 yards in diameter, with a volume of 27,000 cubic feet, this balloon would be able to hold 0.62 Acre-Feet. Therefore, we would require a balloon equivalent (BE) availability of 2,016,000 per month or 67,204 BE per day.
The trip of about 1100 miles would take 110 hours at 10 miles per hour. If we assume a solar powered pump would be able to achieve a 10 cubic feet per minute transfer rate, it would take 45 hours to empty one balloon. The balloon then needs to be collapsed and placed on a truck for return to the Northern Coast. This trip would take about two days. If the balloons were laid end to end, 19,360 could be accommodated along the 1100 mile coast in a continuous stream. But based on the fill rate and the coastal area available, less than half that number could be put to sea every two days.
If the fill rate was also 10 cubic feet per minute, it would take 45 hours to refill the balloon. This obviously assumes a constant downpour sufficient to achieve this rate of fill for all of the balloons deployed. If the coastline available for water collection is 450 miles long, then a maximum of 7,920 balloons could be deployed for filling at any given time unless you had sufficient rainfall to deal with a double or triple tier of balloons. At a 45 hour fill time, this would be insufficient to achieve the 67,204 BE per day needed. At 10 cubic feet per minute, the balloons would only be about half full at the end of one day. This would provide only a small fraction of the 67,204 BE/day capacity required.
There are a number of other issues. (1) If it’s raining, there will be no direct solar power to pump the water out to the waiting balloons. Batteries could be used or some might suggest a gravity flow arrangement. (2) Although the rainfall in the North may be quite large compared with that of Southern California, it undoubtedly would not be continuous over the six month period. Of course there could be lesser amounts of rain during other periods. (3) Pacific storms may attrite the balloons, dashing them on the rocks. (4) Calculations assume no setup/takedown time, just pumping time. (5) It assumes a truck would leave immediately for the North as soon as a balloon is emptied. (6) Unloading the deflated balloons from the trucks and inflating them and hooking them up to the water system could be difficult and time consuming. (7) We have no knowledge of the actual amount of water that could be collected this way, i.e. the actual amount of runoff.
Okay, engineers and hydrologists here’s your opportunity to provide further analysis of the feasibility of this idea.
Here's Vidiot's idea see my comments above:
"A while back I rode the Pacific Coast Bike Trail past Crescent City, California, through the redwood mountains in a driving rainstorm. From an overlook I watched millions of gallons of fresh water plunging into the Pacific below.
600 miles south, tens of million of Southern Californian's are huddled along the coast and they have nearly perfect climatic conditions, except they have a ravenous appetite for fresh water. So here's the deal. California designs and implements a pilot project to collect (using gravity) the water falling and stores it in giant water balloons."
Ultima, how much is the US population going to grow by the year 2050 if immigration--legal and illegal--stopped? Seems to me that you're blaming an inevitable boom in population--probably due to people living longer nowadays--on immigration.
During that same time, how much will the population of the rest of the world grow? More importantly, how much will their consumption of natural resources grow? And how much will that affect the US?
I have to admit that I don't think nor read too much about population growth, but it seems to me that you're trying to improve your miles per gallon just a tad by keeping your tire pressure at a stable level even though there's only so much left in the tank.
Just my two cents worth. Statistics say that the birthrate is still nearlly double the death rate in the U.S. I don't think we have to worry about becoming extinct. I believe the carrying capacity of the U.S. is somewhere around 250 million. We have 300 million now. Do the math.
What makes you believe that 250 million is the US's capacity?
"...how much is the US population going to grow by the year 2050 if immigration--legal and illegal--stopped? Seems to me that you're blaming an inevitable boom in population--probably due to people living longer nowadays--on immigration."
Obviously, this population thing is a little like the Titanic. It will take a while to turn it around under the best of circumstances. Population growth is due to three factors: births, deaths and net in-migation. Net in-migration is probably of the order of 1.5 to 2 million per year, 1 million legal and 600,000 illegal. Fertility rates of immigrants are all higher than those of American women, resulting in a rapidly growing Hispanic population as well as Asians and Muslims. Deaths are in decline but probably more slowly than the increase in fertility rates among immigrants. If we reduce our legal immigration to no more than 200,000 per year and secure our borders, then we can turn to the question of what to do about the illegals already here. If the borders were secure, one might be inclined to take a more liberal attitude toward the existing illegals but the borders cannot be secured without creating significant disincentives for new violators by deporting a significant number of those already present -- the message crime doesn't pay. Others disagree saying all illegals should be deported in a systematic, humane
process over time with due attention to our actual labor needs especially in agriculture. With these measures and some re-interpretation of the 14th amendment and a change in tax policy, I believe we could achieve a stable population in 20 years. This would not be without consequences for our economy but the alternative is even worse. Surely economists can figure out how to do this with a soft landing for our economy rather than a recession.
There is a discussion of the last census data and the forecasts for the future written by a guy named Kolankiewisz. I will try to post some of that discussion. It is generally understood that without the measures cited above or perhaps even with some of them, our population will be 400 million by 2040 and over 1/2 billion by the end of this century. And it could be much higher if you look at some of the upper bounds.
"During that same time, how much will the population of the rest of the world grow? More importantly, how much will their consumption of natural resources grow? And how much will that affect the US?"
The UN has made it clear that this is a worldwide problem with the main focus in countries like India, China,Bangladesh and Sub-Saharan Africa. The world is well on it way to 11 billion up from the present 6.5 billion.
The percentage growth rate of world population was at its all-time peak of 2.1% per year around 1965-70. However, the smaller population size of 3.3 to 3.5 billion at that time meant the absolute increase, roughly 70 million people per year, was smaller than it is now. At a slightly lower rate, the current population of 5 to 6 billion would mean an increase of 100 to 120 million people per year. At that rate of increase, the Earth’s population will double every 34.7 years. With each doubling, the pressures to emigrate from the more densely populated countries will increase dramatically. Yet many refuse to understand what this might mean for America and why we need to concern ourselves with the size of legal immigration quotas as well as the control and repatriation of illegal aliens.
Stopping population in non-coercive ways takes decades under the best of circumstances. Ordinary people – including professionals and politicians – still have time to end population growth voluntarily and gradually by means that they find acceptable. Doing so will require the support of the best available leadership and institutions of politics, economics and technology to avoid physical, chemical and biological constraints beyond human control. Migration can ameliorate or exacerbate local problems, but at the global level, if birth rates do not fall, death rates must rise.
If most people would prefer a decline in birth rates to a rise in death rates, then they should take actions to support a decline in fertility while time remains to realize that choice. In choosing how to encourage a global decline in fertility, people should be mindful of a major lesson of the twentieth century: tyranny by government does not work in the long run [perhaps with the exception of the Chinese example]. The focus of the action should be to create conditions in which people voluntarily regulate their fertility to levels low enough not to require a rise in death rates.
Perhaps the most important factoid we all should keep in mind is, "Over most of its history, the human population experienced an average growth rate that was a fraction of its current rate of growth."
And surely Mirror is right when he raises the question about world natural resources. I noted with interest the problem mentioned on NBC news tonight regarding the Mekong River. China's rapid development and huge population means that the Mekong could actually run dry at some point. The folks downstream in Laos, Myanmar,Cambodia and Viet Nam are very concerned about China's voracious appetite for the water that they also depend upon. But there are many other natural resources like petroleum. Mexico's reserves are expected to last only another 10 years, the U.S.'s 12 years and Canada's 15 years. We will then be at the total mercy of the Middle East and such lovely despots as Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Other natural resources worth thinking about include aluminum,iron, copper, manganese, molybdenum, etc. that we have become so dependent on. It may be a selfish point of view but the more people we have whatever their source, the more people who will join our conspicuous consumption society and the more our needs for natural resources will increase. Whereas if these folks remained in their own countries, their consumption of these resources would be less unless they reach a take off point like China.
I hope there will be fewer and fewer people who will think of the U.S. and world population explosions as of no concern.
I think others have pointed out that the U.S. can sustain a greater population but the question remains, "Why would we want to do that?"
Why would we want to consume our natural resources faster? And why would we want to increase all the population-driven problems we already have? It just doesn't make sense to me to go down this road until we reach a self-limiting level none of us will like for ourselves or our children.
There is a website, SUSPS.org and others that make this claim and based on our energy and water shortages today, overcrowded conditons and the disappearence of open and unoccupied land, common sense would tell anyone that we have reached our population carrying capacity.
Surely economists can figure out how to do this with a soft landing for our economy rather than a recession.
HA HA HA HA HA. Ay, ay, ay, you Gringos really are in for a surprise.
(Wipes tears off the corners of her eyes from laughing so much.)
With each doubling, the pressures to emigrate from the more densely populated countries will increase dramatically
As it happens, emigration from sparsely populated areas, such a Sub-Saharan Africa, are much higher than from densely populated ones, such as Japan and Europe.
The focus of the action should be to create conditions in which people voluntarily regulate their fertility to levels low enough not to require a rise in death rates.
That condition would be lowering the infant mortality rate. Once it reaches 70 per 1000, the fertility rate plummets. Of course, that would require redistributing wealth to the poor, via health and educational services. However, I do not think Ultima's concern is for redistributing for the common good of humanity, but for seeing how his own can continue to callously waste even more themselves.
We will then be at the total mercy of the Middle East and such lovely despots as Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.
MWA HA HA HA! I would not use the future tense. I would also include your non-oil producing, east Asian creditors in the equation. Despots the lot of them.
if these folks remained in their own countries, their consumption of these resources would be less unless they reach a take off point like China.
...and India, and Brazil, and Russia, and Indonesia, and Iran, and Nigeria, and.. oh, my God!, the world is developing, I mean, becoming despots,
"HA HA HA HA HA. Ay, ay, ay, you Gringos really are in for a surprise."
Are you a Gringo yet? Ay, Chihuahua!Will you share our fate?
"As it happens, emigration from sparsely populated areas, such a Sub-Saharan Africa, are much higher than from densely populated ones, such as Japan and Europe."
How do you explain that? If there is plenty of land and water, why leave? Where are the entrepreneurs? Where are the visionaries? Where are the go getters?
"That condition would be lowering the infant mortality rate. Once it reaches 70 per 1000, the fertility rate plummets. Of course, that would require redistributing wealth to the poor, via health and educational services. However, I do not think Ultima's concern is for redistributing for the common good of humanity, but for seeing how his own can continue to callously waste even more themselves."
We cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. I admit to a certain amount of selfishness as most reasonable people would. After all who except those who take a vow of poverty would like to see their standard of living cut in half to raise the standard for everyone else? Volunteers, anyone?
I suspect that affluent American life must have had some attraction for Lupita or she wouldn't be here . She would still be in Mexico enjoying her poverty? Her argument has a hollow ring when we view her history of illegal entry and enjoyment of the good life in the U.S..
I'm all in favor of education, family planning and a reduced infant mortality rate in a combined program as long as it produces the result Lupita predicts. I have suggested this approach to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. All three elements are essential. I don't believe high fertility rates are solely the result of high infant mortality. Perhaps many don't even know what causes pregnancy. There is little likelihood that a reduction in the mortality rate will automatically result in a decline in the fertility rate. That's wishful thinking without education and family planning.
Did China's population reach its present level because of a high infant mortality rate? If so, why is it necessary to impose draconian government controls on the number of children each couple can have?
Are you a Gringo yet? Ay, Chihuahua!Will you share our fate?
I shared it beforehand with the Mexican Crash. As to being a Gringa yet, I unfortunately have been granted legal status, which does not mean I am an immigrant, much less a Gringa. I say unfortunately because I enjoyed when you booted me out of the country when you were losing an argument. By revealing this bit of personal information, these delicious moments will be no more.
If there is plenty of land and water, why leave?
Poverty.
Where are the entrepreneurs? Where are the visionaries? Where are the go getters?
Those are bourgeois values.
Her argument has a hollow ring when we view her history of illegal entry and enjoyment of the good life in the U.S.
I continue enjoying poverty and redistributing my meager personal wealth.
There is little likelihood that a reduction in the mortality rate will automatically result in a decline in the fertility rate.
Take a look:
World fertility and infant mortality, 1995
http://tinyurl.com/2lnzo9
Fertility and infant mortality, Sweden, Brazil, Chile
http://tinyurl.com/2jnu8f
Did China's population reach its present level because of a high infant mortality rate?
You know perfectly well how China reached its present fertility rate. I am referring to natural demographic transition.
Are you sure legal status does not also make you a Gringa? When do you become a Gringa? Are you looking forward to it? Or is there still hope you will be repatriated? Don't give up!
I guess your meager earnings were more so in Mexico.
I enjoy all of your responses even the insulting ones, querida.
"I continue enjoying poverty and redistributing my meager personal wealth."
Since you enjoy poverty perhaps you should stop worrying about poverty in the rest of the world.
Where are the entrepreneurs? Where are the visionaries? Where are the go getters?
"Those are bourgeois values."
Perhaps so but if they were in greater supply in the third world they would have little to worry about.
Do you know the origin of the expression, "Ay Chihuahua!"?
It was not derived from its bandito past or from that state's desolate prairie. It derives from "the Year of the Yellow Corn", a year in which a drought yielded not a drop of rain. Corn scraggled an inch, no more. Cattle ran themselves across the plains, crazed for water. At the bottom of the pyramid, thousands of peons died.
Water, water everywhere - not a drop to drink.
"However, I do not think Ultima's concern is for redistributing for the common good of humanity, but for seeing how his own can continue to callously waste even more themselves."
I have few reservations about redistributing for the common good if people are willing to also help themselves through lower fertility rates, entrepreneurship, and full utilization of their power to promote change within their own countries. I think 4 autos in the garage or driveway, a color tv in every room, and conspicuous consumption is a plague on American just as too many people is.
I guess your impoverished state doesn't keep you from a computer or the internet, Little Wolf Lipinski.
Good luck with your proposal to the Gates Foundation. Please keep us posted. Do you have any relationship with them or did you just send them your proposal out of the blue? Anyway, if I may, I will humbly point out some aspects of population control that, reading between lines, I think you are omitting.
1. Demographic transition. Though the trend began in the 70's, it takes generations to play out. As far as I can tell, the rest of the 1st world has already incorporated a stable, even decreasing, population into its long-term policies. Not so in the US, which still views immigration as its essence, growth as its ultimate goal, and has no agricultural policy in place, other that impoverished guest workers or prisoners. Though you have addressed the first point as a policy of the past, you still cling to the notion of avoiding a recession and multiplying wealth instead of acknowledging that a recession is no more than the shrinking of the economy which, together with a shrinking of the population, does not necessarily mean decreased standard of living. Regarding the last point, you have not proposed a sustainable agricultural policy that aims at self-sufficiency.
2. The role of the US in the world. There is no way the US can maintain its supremacy while its population and economy are stable/shrinking. You have not addressed the repercussions of loss of hegemony, which are many, including the widespread questioning of fundamental myths such as “city on the hill”, “greatest nation on Earth”, and “light that shines upon humanity”, that is, the US as a “good” nation. Do not underestimate how important these myths are to the identity of Americans. I dare say that their loss will have an impact similar to when the Ancient Mexicans realized that human sacrifice was not necessary for the sun to come out.
As usual, Lupita, you make some astute and interesting observations. I saved your comments for future reference.
Lipinski -- this is an unusual Mexican name, isn't it?
I see blog owners are privy to privileged information. Either that, or I was unusually careless. My name is unusual, not only in Mexico, but worldwide. My family is unique in having this name, as I have found out by googling it. Its origin is Lithuanian, Russianized during occupation, and Romanized by some Gringo immigration bureaucrat. This is why I am careful not to reveal it casually because anybody could easily google my life and that of my immediate family.
Sorry about that. I think Dee mentioned it once before perhaps when MATT was still operating. She may have gotten it from an email you sent when we were trying to organize some debates long ago. Therefore,I didn't expect I was compromising your identity.
I didn't see anything when I googled Lipinski that would in any way betray your family. No one from Mexico was mentioned nor was Lithuania. Most seem to be from Poland or Prussia. I am an amateur genealogist and have traced my family members to that same region, Silesia, which has moved back and forth between Germany and Poland.
I thought Lipinski was a play on my last name, that you actually knew it. Well, at least Dee was discrete enough to let on that she knew my name and email without actually revealing them.
Woah, Woah, Woah, My Dear Friend Ultima.
I have never, ever divulged any user names or email addresses, ever, ever ever!!! Do not blame your so called slip of the name in your argument.
I still xxxooo you of course, but do not cast any blame of your indiscretion upon me.
Actually, I love our Ms. Lupita and I welcome her to my Blog at any time. She has a GREAT MIND and I love her as a daughter although she often does NOT show me the same respect.
Ulty, you clearly divulged her name to attempt to win the argument. Guess What. You Lost.
But, as I say, I love you too, for your MIND of course!!
PS: Mijita, do not be angry at me any longer. I offended you. I am sure but those reasons will pass unspoken. If you wish to discuss, email me at dee_perezscott@yahoo.com.
I will make ammends to you and our friend Gregorio if he gives me the chance!!
My recollection was that I saw the name in two places as I stated it. If Dee never used it and her memory is perfect, I apologize for blaming her for half of the puzzle. I did not search for the name nor disclose it maliciously. I surely saw it somewhere in a public forum which led me to believe it was common knowledge. I'll fall on my sword for this indiscretion if querida demands it.
"Ulty, you clearly divulged her name to attempt to win the argument. Guess What. You Lost."
I had no such motive. I regularly lose to Lupita but that is for me to admit not for you to judge.
You Win Dear Ultima.
You are a scholar and a gentleman to fall on your sword!
xxx ooo
(such chivalry is so heart warming!! There are so few left! Aaaahh, to return to Camelot!)
Lipinski is not my name so there is no need to fall on your sword, querido, though I do appreciate the thought.
Why somebody would call me Lipinski since surnames ending in -ski are not typically Mexican, I do not know. My hypothesis is that somebody actually knew my real name and was letting me know. By the way, I missed it when I was called Lipinski on MATT by whomever it was.
I always learn something when you two tango. It's too bad Dee found me in the final days of matt's existence. I imagine you two danced plenty there...
Anyway, on to something that has nothing to do with anything...
Did you know, ultima, that I'm the reason why the Rockies made the playoffs? Karma worked in your favor after I joked on matt about the Rockies playoff less dozen years. Soon after, the Astros' season went down the toilet and the Rockies inexplicably made the playoffs.
You also have to thank me for being patient enough to avoid bringing this up during the Rockies winning streak. Had I done that, karma would have been reversed and the Padres would be in the playoffs right now.
À propos of nothing, a found this hilarious video. I am sure Gregorio would enjoy it very much. Maybe it will lure him back to us.
One Semester of Spanish Love Song
LOL...
"It's funny because it's true."
I'm actually taking Spanish 1411 this semester--regretting that I didn't even try to test out of it--and that's exactly what we're learning.
I think he's taken more than one semester of Spanish though, he might even be fluent.
"That condition would be lowering the infant mortality rate. Once it reaches 70 per 1000, the fertility rate plummets."
Source?
How would lowering the fertility rate affect infant mortality? Do you have the cart before the horse?
"As it happens, emigration from sparsely populated areas, such a Sub-Saharan Africa, are much higher than from densely populated ones, such as Japan and Europe."
Perhaps the term "sparsely populated" is misleading. If one divides the arable land area into the population, a different result is obtained. Similarly, the number of entrepreneurs and educated people per square kilometer might have something to do with it.
"...you Gringos really are in for a surprise."
Maybe you won't be surprised but you are now on the same ship or are you already selling short?
"I thought Lipinski was a play on my last name, that you actually knew it. Well, at least Dee was discrete enough to let on that she knew my name and email without actually revealing them."
I guess that means Lipinski could be reverse engineered to learn your secret!
I wonder where Dee got your name and email address?
"Good luck with your proposal to the Gates Foundation. Please keep us posted. Do you have any relationship with them or did you just send them your proposal out of the blue?"
I just sent them my proposal out of the blue after reading about some of the foundations initiatives. I did get a response and I hope they are giving my proposal serious consideration. I believe it would dovetail nicely with the foundation's other efforts to do some good with the Buffet/Gates billions.
"Why somebody would call me Lipinski since surnames ending in -ski are not typically Mexican, I do not know."
At the time I guess I thought that was your married name. A friend of ours has the name Sandy Ramirez Ziemek. Her husband is Polish and they are from Chicago originally.
Ultima, lol we know how Dee how Lupita's name and e-mail address, don't we? Moderators on forums are privy to that kind of member information.
I just hope she learned something for being responsible for getting the Matt forum shut down.
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